Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.087200 0.099443 0.112736 0.128235 0.145805 0.165098 0.187887
2026-01-11 0.068416 0.084293 0.102846 0.126104 0.154461 0.187898 0.230306
2026-01-18 0.055501 0.073441 0.095868 0.125916 0.165077 0.214345 0.281010
2026-01-25 0.042963 0.060879 0.084775 0.118889 0.166260 0.229634 0.320794
2026-02-01 0.033107 0.050113 0.074251 0.110875 0.164907 0.241549 0.358392
2026-02-08 0.026445 0.042643 0.067041 0.106277 0.167593 0.259529 0.407607
2026-02-15 0.021205 0.036340 0.060479 0.101521 0.169291 0.276418 0.458219
2026-02-22 0.018190 0.033027 0.058005 0.102766 0.180608 0.309913 0.540356
2026-03-01 0.014876 0.028575 0.052882 0.098725 0.182548 0.328620 0.601515
2026-03-08 0.012374 0.025089 0.048819 0.095812 0.185952 0.350355 0.671564
2026-03-15 0.010370 0.022152 0.045232 0.093133 0.189320 0.372551 0.746161
2026-03-22 0.009213 0.020674 0.044174 0.095146 0.201997 0.414004 0.863887
2026-03-29 0.007887 0.018620 0.041691 0.094054 0.208772 0.446081 0.970615
2026-04-05 0.006904 0.017122 0.040108 0.094612 0.219197 0.487440 1.103975
2026-04-12 0.006137 0.015962 0.039058 0.096184 0.232210 0.536562 1.262803
2026-04-19 0.005134 0.014009 0.035814 0.092081 0.231647 0.556136 1.359893
2026-04-26 0.004239 0.012125 0.032364 0.086804 0.227360 0.566644 1.438263
2026-05-03 0.003608 0.010801 0.030047 0.083924 0.228460 0.590083 1.551973
2026-05-10 0.003063 0.009588 0.027774 0.080710 0.228129 0.610056 1.660877
2026-05-17 0.002774 0.009056 0.027246 0.082158 0.240506 0.664283 1.867473
2026-05-24 0.002377 0.008097 0.025317 0.079254 0.240375 0.685942 1.991724
2026-05-31 0.002063 0.007325 0.023773 0.077169 0.242204 0.713259 2.136547
2026-06-07 0.001797 0.006644 0.022363 0.075203 0.244032 0.740956 2.287568